The Economy Report, October 2019
We are now at the start of a long period when demographic needs will increase faster than employment in the economy. This means that the need to expand the welfare services sector will be greater than the possibility of funding or staffing it, if nothing changes.
On top of this, growth in Sweden will be weak this year and next year. This year it is mainly domestic demand that is weakening, and next year it will mainly be demand from export markets. Employment is estimated to decrease in 2020?2021, resulting in weak tax base growth in those years.
This is in contrast to the trend we have seen in the past decade, when costs have increased much faster than demographic needs.